Trend Track
The 10-year Treasury yields keeps rising.
Following a lackluster Treasury auction on Tuesday, U.S. Treasury rates increased once more. The impact of President Donald Trump’s revised tariff policy on inflation and economic growth prospects was another consideration for traders.
The 10-year Treasury yield increased by 12 basis points to 4.285%, while the rate on the 2-year Treasury
at 3.715%, down 2 basis points.
0.01% is equal to one basis point. Prices and yields move against each other.
US10Y
US Treasury 10-Year Bond 4.423% + 0.163% US $1 million
U.S. 1 Month Treasury 4.366% +0.043
US1Y
U.S. 1 Year Treasury 3.907% +0.032
US2Y
U.S. 2 Year Treasury 3.771% +0.033
US30Y
U.S. 30 Year Treasury 4.902% +0.187
US3M
U.S. 3 Month Treasury 4.34% +0.046
US6M
U.S. 6 Month Treasury 4.163% +0.021
In the first coupon supply since Trump’s announcement of additional tariffs on April 2, the Treasury Department auctioned off $58 billion in 3-year Treasury notes on Tuesday. Following a “weak” auction, yields continued to rise, according to Vail Hartman, BMO’s U.S. rates strategist.
Some traders have conjectured that foreign owners are pushing rates up by selling some Treasuries.
According to Trade Nation analyst David Morrison, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield dropped as low as 3.8% last week and dropped below 3.9% early Monday before rising to 4.14% later in the day, its largest one-day swing in a year.
Trump promised over the weekend to continue his tough tariff approach, enacting a 10% unilateral initial duty and a larger range of “reciprocal” penalties that would start on April 9.
If Beijing doesn’t remove the 34% tariffs it placed on American goods last Friday, Trump threatened Monday to apply an extra 50% duty on American imports from China. China pledged to “fight to the end” and stated that it will not be deterred by American trade threats.
Saira Malik, head of Nuveen equities and fixed income, stated, “We believe the risk is now skewed toward more rate cuts by year-end because the tariffs announced thus far are higher than previously expected.”
“Our estimate of fair value for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased from 4.5% to 4.0%, while our probability-weighted guidance has increased from a total of four Fed cuts through 2025 and 2026 to 6.6 cuts,” she continued.
